CORONAVIRUS —
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
594. Hon PETER COLLIER to
the minister representing the Treasurer:
I ask this question on behalf of Hon
Dr Steve Thomas, who is away on urgent parliamentary business.
I refer to the government's
economic and fiscal update of 28 May 2020, which states that in response to the
COVID-19 pandemic, gross state product is
predicted to rise by 0.7 per cent in 2019–20 but decline by 3.1 per cent
in 2020–21.
(1) What is the
estimated change in activity by sector in the Treasury baseline modelling that
contributes to the overall estimated decline of 3.1 per cent in 2020–21?
(2) Are any
sectors of the Western Australian economy predicted to grow; and, if so, which
ones and by how much?
(3) Which sectors of the Western Australian
economy are predicted to decline, and by how much each?
(4) If the price
of iron ore remains above $US100 a tonne for the rest of 2020, how much
additional royalty revenue will the government receive in 2020–21 above
—
(a) the 2019–20
budget estimate; and
(b) the 2019
midyear review?
The PRESIDENT: That is a very
detailed question, member.
Hon
STEPHEN DAWSON replied:
I thank Hon Dr Steve Thomas for some
notice of the question. The following answer has been provided to me by the Treasurer.
(1)–(3) The
economic and fiscal update did not include a breakdown of the impact on
activity by sector. Updated forecasts and information on the impact of COVID-19
by sector will be published in the 2020–21 budget to be released on 8
October 2020.
(4) (a)–(b)
Treasury does not publish royalty forecasts on a calendar year basis. A range
of factors influence iron ore royalty
revenue, including, but not limited to, the exchange rate, sales volumes,
premiums and discounts for various ore qualities, and deductions for
shipping. However, Treasury does publish a revenue
sensitivity for a $US1 a tonne deviation from forecast in the average benchmark
62 per cent Fe iron ore price in the budget year, holding all else constant.
These sensitivities assume that the deviation from forecast occurs over a full
year.