HYDRAULIC FRACTURING —
MODELLING
1332. Hon ROBIN CHAPPLE to the Leader of the House
representing the Premier:
I
refer to the McGowan government's announcement on Tuesday, 27 November
2018, that it would approve fracking.
(1) On what basis
was it decided that 400 petajoules a year would be the estimated output for a fracking
industry in WA, as cited in the fracking inquiry report?
(2) Does the
Premier agree with recent economic modelling by The Australia Institute, which
concludes that gas prices may increase if unconventional gas is introduced into
the WA domestic market?
(3) If no to (2), on what modelling
is the Premier basing his opinion?
(4) Does the
Premier agree with The Australia Institute's modelling, which estimates
between three and 19 full-time equivalent jobs for Aboriginal people will be
created by the fracking industry in WA?
(5) If no to (4), on what modelling
is the Premier basing his opinion?
Hon SUE
ELLERY replied:
I thank the honourable member for
some notice of the question.
I did have a note when the member
tabled this question, but I do not have it with me now, about the description
PJ/y. I know what terajoules per day is, but what is PJ/y?
Hon Robin Chapple: Petajoules
per year.
Hon SUE ELLERY: The answer is
as follows.
(1) Four hundred
petajoules per year is equivalent to 1 110 terajoules per day, which is
equivalent to the forecast total annual domestic demand out to at least 2022.
At page 383, the inquiry notes —
� a new unconventional gas field in Western
Australia, may produce as little as 100 TJ/d over twenty years. At the other
extreme, combined production from gas fields may approach 500–1,000 TJ/d.
The Inquiry considered a 1,100 TJ/d scenario in our GHG risk assessment as it
meets the forecast Western Australian domestic demand out to at least 2022,
even though it is not likely that onshore fields based on hydraulic fracture
stimulation technologies would entirely supplant domestic supplies from
conventional sources in the coming decades.
(2)–(5) The
Premier notes the Australia Institute's longstanding opposition to all
forms of natural gas development. The Premier gives greater regard to the
two-volume, 609-page report prepared by the Independent Scientific Panel
Inquiry into Hydraulic Fracture Stimulation in Western Australia, which
considered over 550 technical papers on shale fracturing, 3 000 technical
papers on all aspects of horizontal wells, and incorporates independent peer
review by technical experts from across Australia.