Question Without Notice No. 426 asked in the Legislative Council on 22 August 2017 by Hon Peter Collier
Parliament: 40 Session: 1
426. Hon PETER COLLIER to the minister representing the Treasurer:
I refer to the iron ore price forecast in the 2016-17 Pre-election Financial Projections Statement.
(1) Does Treasury use a consensus long-term price to establish the price of iron ore over the forward estimates?
(2) If yes to (1), what is the consensus long-term price for iron ore, and to which year does that price relate?
(3) If yes to (1), based on the consensus long-term price and Treasury's iron ore forecasting methodology, what is the forecast iron ore price for —
(a) 2021-22;
(b) 2022-23;
(c) 2023-24;
(d) 2024-25;
(e) 2025-26; and
(f) 2026-27?
Hon STEPHEN DAWSON replied:
I thank the honourable member for some notice of the question. The following information has been provided by the Treasurer.
(1) Yes.
(2) The consensus long-term price used in the Pre-election Financial Projections Statement was $US64.20 per tonne. This is the level the iron ore price was assumed to revert to in 2025-26. The average iron ore price over the last 30 years was around $US60 per tonne.
(3) Forecasts beyond 2019-20 were not released in the Pre-election Financial Projections Statement. Based on the methodology, the assumptions for the requested years would be as follows —
(b) $US63.9 per tonne;
(c) $US64.0 per tonne;
(d) $US64.1 per tonne;
(e) $US64.2 per tonne; and
(f) not estimated.
The average iron ore price over the last 30 years was around $US60 per tonne.