GST DISTRIBUTION — IRON ORE PRICE
656. Hon Dr STEVE THOMAS to the minister representing the
Treasurer:
I refer to the answer to question
without notice 13, asked on 12 February 2019, in which the minister told the
house that ''A scenario where the average price of iron ore remains at
$90 a tonne has not been modelled, as this assumption is highly unrealistic.''
It is now four months later.
(1) What is the
current international price for iron ore in US dollars per tonne?
(2) Is the price
listed in today's The West Australian of US$102.76 a tonne an
accurate assessment?
(3) Given that
the state budget released last month predicts iron ore prices this financial
year of US$76.50 a tonne, and US$73.50 next financial year, how much additional
revenue will the government receive each month above budget predictions if iron
ore prices stay at the price of US$102 a tonne?
Hon
STEPHEN DAWSON replied:
I thank the honourable member for
some notice of the question. The following information has been provided to me
by the Treasurer.
(1) The price was
$US106.5 a tonne on 12 June 2019. The financial year to date average is $US78.6
a tonne.
(2) Yes. The
price listed in The West Australian is unsourced, but appears to be the
forward contract The Steel Index price for the end of June as quoted by CME
Group, whereas the price quoted by the Department of Treasury in part (1) is
the 12 June spot price, hence the difference.
(3) The revenue
impact of a higher iron ore price cannot be determined without factoring in the
impact of other variables, such as the exchange rate and iron ore export
volumes. Neither the futures market nor the most recent Consensus Economics
survey predict iron ore prices to average their currently elevated levels in
2019–20.